Coin Bureau: BTC will fall

Said on Mar 13, 2024, at 16:49 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“we believe that potential buying by large investors such as central banks will limit how much BTC will crash by during the next cycle bottom”
Watch at 16:49Bitcoin Trading 101: The Only Guide You Need
PredictionBTCwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$73,072

Mar 13, 2024

Price at close

$81,116

Mar 13, 2025

Return

+11.0%

S&P 500 +8.2%

BTC closed at $73,072 on Mar 13, 2024. On Mar 13, 2025 it closed at $81,116, a return of +11.0%. SPY returned +8.2% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000Sep 2023Jan 2024May 2024Sep 2024Jan 2025May 2025Said on Mar 13, 2024
$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000Sep 2023Apr 2024Oct 2024May 2025Said on Mar 13, 2024

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$73,072Mar 13, 2024$67,117Apr 12, 2024−8.2%S&P 500 −0.7%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$73,072Mar 13, 2024$67,314Jun 11, 2024−7.9%S&P 500 +4.4%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$73,072Mar 13, 2024$57,042Sep 9, 2024−21.9%S&P 500 +6.6%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$73,072Mar 13, 2024$81,116Mar 13, 2025+11.0%S&P 500 +8.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Mar 13, 2027——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Mar 12, 2029——
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $73,072 on Mar 13, 2024. On Apr 12, 2024 it closed at $67,117, a return of −8.2%. SPY returned −0.7% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $73,072 on Mar 13, 2024. On Jun 11, 2024 it closed at $67,314, a return of −7.9%. SPY returned +4.4% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $73,072 on Mar 13, 2024. On Sep 9, 2024 it closed at $57,042, a return of −21.9%. SPY returned +6.6% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $73,072 on Mar 13, 2024. On Mar 13, 2025 it closed at $81,116, a return of +11.0%. SPY returned +8.2% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 13, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 12, 2029.

What was said around it

even more volatility unless you're incredibly experienced it's better to avoid trading around these kinds of catalysts there's a reason why they say you shouldn't try to catch a falling knife during Trading on that note the cycle bottom is the lowest price BTC will go during the bare Market phase of the four-year cycle cycle bottoms have historically occurred around 1 year after btc's cycle top as with the cycle tops it's impossible to predict exactly how low BTC will go during the next cycle bottom or when for what it's worth we believe that potential buying by large investors such as central banks will limit how much BTC will crash by during the next cycle bottom that's because this is exactly what central banks have been doing with gold recently its price would otherwise have fallen due to Rising interest rates now to wrap things up I want to give you a few tips for trading BTC the first is to understand that your returns are likely to be close to the same as if you had just held BTC instead statistically speaking this all depends on how much time you're willing to dedicate to trading BTC the more you practice the better you'll get the second tip is to understand that the returns you

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