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Graham Stephan: BTC will rise

Said on Dec 13, 2017, at 5:10 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I also understand the value from a psychological standpoint there are a lot of psychological barriers and resistance levels when it comes to Bitcoin that people assume it's going to hit and therefore it hits and I get the future aspirations of this becoming more widely adopted and used in the price going up further”
Watch at 5:10Bitcoin Nears $17K: Why I FINALLY invested in Cryptocurrency (What happened?!)
PredictionBTCwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$16,033

Dec 13, 2017

Price at close

$3,302

Dec 13, 2018

Return

−79.4%

S&P 500 +1.3%

BTC closed at $16,033 on Dec 13, 2017. On Dec 13, 2018 it closed at $3,302, a return of −79.4%. SPY returned +1.3% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000Aug 2017Dec 2017Mar 2018Jul 2018Oct 2018Feb 2019Said on Dec 13, 2017
$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000Aug 2017Feb 2018Aug 2018Feb 2019Said on Dec 13, 2017

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$16,033Dec 13, 2017$13,740Jan 12, 2018−14.3%S&P 500 +4.7%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$16,033Dec 13, 2017$9,150Mar 13, 2018−42.9%S&P 500 +4.3%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$16,033Dec 13, 2017$6,872Jun 11, 2018−57.1%S&P 500 +5.4%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$16,033Dec 13, 2017$3,302Dec 13, 2018−79.4%S&P 500 +1.3%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$16,033Dec 13, 2017$18,809Dec 12, 2020+17.3%S&P 500 +45.4%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$16,033Dec 13, 2017$17,210Dec 12, 2022+7.3%S&P 500 +63.0%
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $16,033 on Dec 13, 2017. On Jan 12, 2018 it closed at $13,740, a return of −14.3%. SPY returned +4.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $16,033 on Dec 13, 2017. On Mar 13, 2018 it closed at $9,150, a return of −42.9%. SPY returned +4.3% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $16,033 on Dec 13, 2017. On Jun 11, 2018 it closed at $6,872, a return of −57.1%. SPY returned +5.4% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $16,033 on Dec 13, 2017. On Dec 13, 2018 it closed at $3,302, a return of −79.4%. SPY returned +1.3% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

BTC closed at $16,033 on Dec 13, 2017. On Dec 12, 2020 it closed at $18,809, a return of +17.3%. SPY returned +45.4% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

BTC closed at $16,033 on Dec 13, 2017. On Dec 12, 2022 it closed at $17,210, a return of +7.3%. SPY returned +63.0% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

relation to that and this is the biggest difference I see with cryptocurrency now even though I'm investing in it right now I still can't justify the value at the time of making this video I still can't understand why Bitcoin is nearly trading at $20,000 as opposed to 12,000 as opposed to 7,000 or as opposed to 13,000 in cryptocurrency the way I see it is that the value is whatever we think it's going to be rather than on the fundamentals I also understand the value from a psychological standpoint there are a lot of psychological barriers and resistance levels when it comes to Bitcoin that people assume it's going to hit and therefore it hits and I get the future aspirations of this becoming more widely adopted and used in the price going up further but at the same time this isn't so much trading its use it's trading speculation it's investing in cryptocurrency just with the expectation that it's going to be worth more in the future but then we can also compare Bitcoin with just about every other market and say in relation to this it's undervalued in relation to gold that has a market cap of seven point eight trillion Bitcoin is undervalued in relation to how many people actually use

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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