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Graham Stephan: BTC will rise

Said on Mar 15, 2021, at 10:32 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“with the expectation that over the next few decades it's probably going to continue going up in price.”
Watch at 10:32Bitcoin Just Ended Investing | The NEW 60/40 Rule
PredictionBTCwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$55,605

Mar 15, 2021

Price at close

$39,280

Mar 15, 2022

Return

−29.4%

S&P 500 +8.9%

BTC closed at $55,605 on Mar 15, 2021. On Mar 15, 2022 it closed at $39,280, a return of −29.4%. SPY returned +8.9% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000Sep 2020Jan 2021May 2021Sep 2021Jan 2022May 2022Said on Mar 15, 2021
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000Sep 2020Apr 2021Oct 2021May 2022Said on Mar 15, 2021

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$55,605Mar 15, 2021$62,960Apr 14, 2021+13.2%S&P 500 +4.1%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$55,605Mar 15, 2021$39,021Jun 13, 2021−29.8%S&P 500 +7.4%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$55,605Mar 15, 2021$45,174Sep 11, 2021−18.8%S&P 500 +13.1%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$55,605Mar 15, 2021$39,280Mar 15, 2022−29.4%S&P 500 +8.9%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$55,605Mar 15, 2021$71,389Mar 14, 2024+28.4%S&P 500 +35.8%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$55,605Mar 15, 2021$71,212Mar 14, 2026+28.1%S&P 500 +79.0%
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $55,605 on Mar 15, 2021. On Apr 14, 2021 it closed at $62,960, a return of +13.2%. SPY returned +4.1% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $55,605 on Mar 15, 2021. On Jun 13, 2021 it closed at $39,021, a return of −29.8%. SPY returned +7.4% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $55,605 on Mar 15, 2021. On Sep 11, 2021 it closed at $45,174, a return of −18.8%. SPY returned +13.1% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $55,605 on Mar 15, 2021. On Mar 15, 2022 it closed at $39,280, a return of −29.4%. SPY returned +8.9% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

BTC closed at $55,605 on Mar 15, 2021. On Mar 14, 2024 it closed at $71,389, a return of +28.4%. SPY returned +35.8% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

BTC closed at $55,605 on Mar 15, 2021. On Mar 14, 2026 it closed at $71,212, a return of +28.1%. SPY returned +79.0% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

as efficiently as possible, then I do agree that Bitcoin is a place in your portfolio alongside stocks. That's because when you're young, you have enough time to recover from any sort of market crash that you don't necessarily have when you're older. So, you may as well use that to your advantage now. Now, as for myself, I currently have about 2% of my net worth held in Bitcoin, and I'm looking to probably bring that up closer to 5% by the end of the year. I see a lot of potential in holding this just as a hedge against the US dollar and also with the expectation that over the next few decades it's probably going to continue going up in price. Now, that's not to say that I don't think there's going to be a crash or that it can't drop 80% in value. Listen, I'm sure at some point that's probably going to happen and that's a risk we have to take. But if you have decades of time just to hold this out and see how it goes, then I think allocating a small amount of your portfolio to Bitcoin is probably a good move to make. That means as it stands right now, if the 60/40 portfolio is broken, I could very well see a day in the future where it might become 70% stocks, 15% Bitcoin, 15% bonds,

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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