Graham Stephan: BTC will fall

Said on Jan 15, 2021, at 10:02 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I still think it could potentially collapse down to nothing”
Watch at 10:02Why I Bought Bitcoin
PredictionBTCwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$36,742

Jan 15, 2021

Price at close

$43,084

Jan 15, 2022

Return

+17.3%

S&P 500 +25.3%

BTC closed at $36,742 on Jan 15, 2021. On Jan 15, 2022 it closed at $43,084, a return of +17.3%. SPY returned +25.3% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000Jul 2020Nov 2020Mar 2021Jul 2021Nov 2021Mar 2022Said on Jan 15, 2021
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000Jul 2020Feb 2021Aug 2021Mar 2022Said on Jan 15, 2021

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$36,742Jan 15, 2021$48,578Feb 14, 2021+32.2%S&P 500 +4.5%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$36,742Jan 15, 2021$63,160Apr 15, 2021+71.9%S&P 500 +11.1%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$36,742Jan 15, 2021$32,820Jul 14, 2021−10.7%S&P 500 +16.9%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$36,742Jan 15, 2021$43,084Jan 15, 2022+17.3%S&P 500 +25.3%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$36,742Jan 15, 2021$42,511Jan 15, 2024+15.7%S&P 500 +32.6%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$36,742Jan 15, 2021$96,952Jan 14, 2026+163.9%S&P 500 +96.8%
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $36,742 on Jan 15, 2021. On Feb 14, 2021 it closed at $48,578, a return of +32.2%. SPY returned +4.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $36,742 on Jan 15, 2021. On Apr 15, 2021 it closed at $63,160, a return of +71.9%. SPY returned +11.1% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $36,742 on Jan 15, 2021. On Jul 14, 2021 it closed at $32,820, a return of −10.7%. SPY returned +16.9% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $36,742 on Jan 15, 2021. On Jan 15, 2022 it closed at $43,084, a return of +17.3%. SPY returned +25.3% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

BTC closed at $36,742 on Jan 15, 2021. On Jan 15, 2024 it closed at $42,511, a return of +15.7%. SPY returned +32.6% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

BTC closed at $36,742 on Jan 15, 2021. On Jan 14, 2026 it closed at $96,952, a return of +163.9%. SPY returned +96.8% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

of it I'm definitely not a risky investor and I tend to play it overly safe with the other 99% and some might even argue that 1% isn't even worth it but for me I care more about preserving my money in a well Diversified portfolio then I am about trying to maximize the profits for every single dollar if I were a young whipper snapper again maybe I would think differently but for where I am right now in my life and my career I feel like a 1% allocation just makes the most sense and lastly let me just say this many of my original thoughts on bitcoin remain unchanged I still think it could potentially collapse down to nothing I also think it might head to 100,000 I don't think any amount of charting or analysis is going to accurately predict when and where this will end up so I would never Advocate anyone buying in an amount that they're not fully prepared to lose in the big picture of investing Bitcoin is still very new I still think 12 years of history is not enough to estimate a value 30 to 50 years from now there's so many unknowns that could really throw a curve ball fall at this at any moment and that's something to be prepared for I also believe there's no harm in taking profits

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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