Why: 30 days
BTC closed at $112,775 on Oct 10, 2025. On Nov 9, 2025 it closed at $104,723, a return of −7.1%. SPY returned +2.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
Why: 90 days
BTC closed at $112,775 on Oct 10, 2025. On Jan 8, 2026 it closed at $91,100, a return of −19.2%. SPY returned +5.9% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
Why: 180 days
BTC closed at $112,775 on Oct 10, 2025. On Apr 8, 2026 it closed at $71,070, a return of −37.0%. SPY returned +4.1% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
Why: 1 year
BTC closed at $112,775 on Oct 10, 2025. On Oct 10, 2026 it closed at $82,988, a return of −26.4%. SPY returned +20.5% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
Why: 3 years
Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 9, 2028.
Why: 5 years
Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 9, 2030.
Why: Stated deadline
BTC closed at $112,775 on Oct 10, 2025. On Dec 31, 2025 it closed at $87,648, a return of −22.3%. SPY returned +4.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.