“Poly Market has now repriced the probability that Strategy
sells Bitcoin before December 31st, 2026 from approximately 10% on April 27th to 48% by May 6th.”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: BTC — an event
Said on May 12, 2026, at 5:13 in the video.
The window it was checked over
BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
preferred stack creates an annual dividend and debt service obligation of approximately $1.5 billion. And on the May 5th call, Strategy disclosed that the USD reserves currently allocated to those obligations cover roughly 18 months of payments. That is the entire runway before something has to give. Either the equity flywheel reignites or the preferred dividends stop or the company sells Bitcoin to plug the gap. And on the same call, Sailor told the market which of those three options was on the table. Poly Market has now repriced the probability that Strategy sells Bitcoin before December 31st, 2026 from approximately 10% on April 27th to 48% by May 6th. That is a 38 percentage point repricing inside of 9 days triggered by a single sentence on a single conference call. For strategy, its accumulation model depends on one variable, the premium of MSTR's market cap to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, a ratio called MNAV. When MNAV exceeds one, the strategy can issue equity at a premium, deploy the proceeds to acquire additional Bitcoin and thereby increase Bitcoin per share. When MNAV is below one, the same equity issuance becomes mechanically dilutive.
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
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