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Coin Bureau: BTC will fall

Said on Aug 31, 2025, at 1:46 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“Historically speaking, Bitcoin would top   roughly 16 to 18 months after the hing. Now, for  context, the most recent Bitcoin hing took place   in April 2024. So 16 to 18 months later, puts us  in August to October this year,”
Watch at 1:46The Crypto Bull Market is ENDING! Get Out Now?!
PredictionBTCwill fallby Dec 31, 2025
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$108,246

Aug 31, 2025

Price at close

$78,581

Aug 31, 2026

Return

−27.4%

S&P 500 +21.1%

BTC closed at $108,246 on Aug 31, 2025. On Aug 31, 2026 it closed at $78,581, a return of −27.4%. SPY returned +21.1% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Mar 2025Jul 2025Oct 2025Feb 2026Jun 2026Oct 2026Said on Aug 31, 2025
$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Mar 2025Sep 2025Apr 2026Oct 2026Said on Aug 31, 2025

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$108,246Aug 31, 2025$114,049Sep 30, 2025+5.4%S&P 500 +4.3%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$108,246Aug 31, 2025$90,802Nov 29, 2025−16.1%S&P 500 +7.0%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$108,246Aug 31, 2025$65,872Feb 27, 2026−39.1%S&P 500 +7.8%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$108,246Aug 31, 2025$78,581Aug 31, 2026−27.4%S&P 500 +21.1%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Aug 30, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Aug 30, 2030——
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Correct$108,246Aug 31, 2025$87,648Dec 31, 2025−19.0%S&P 500 +7.1%
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $108,246 on Aug 31, 2025. On Sep 30, 2025 it closed at $114,049, a return of +5.4%. SPY returned +4.3% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $108,246 on Aug 31, 2025. On Nov 29, 2025 it closed at $90,802, a return of −16.1%. SPY returned +7.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $108,246 on Aug 31, 2025. On Feb 27, 2026 it closed at $65,872, a return of −39.1%. SPY returned +7.8% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $108,246 on Aug 31, 2025. On Aug 31, 2026 it closed at $78,581, a return of −27.4%. SPY returned +21.1% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 30, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 30, 2030.

Why: Stated deadline

BTC closed at $108,246 on Aug 31, 2025. On Dec 31, 2025 it closed at $87,648, a return of −19.0%. SPY returned +7.1% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

there's no consensus on what counts   as a cryptobull market, as some believe it starts  the moment Bitcoin has bottomed. Others say it   only starts after Bitcoin has hit a new all-time  high. And a few would even argue that the bull   market shouldn't be measured using Bitcoin's  price as a reference, but the Bitcoin hovering   as a reference. In case our earlier description  didn't make it clear enough, we will be using the   Bitcoin hovering as the reference point for this  video. Historically speaking, Bitcoin would top   roughly 16 to 18 months after the hing. Now, for  context, the most recent Bitcoin hing took place   in April 2024. So 16 to 18 months later, puts us  in August to October this year, as we explained   in our video about the cycle top. More about that  right over here. Now, as you might have guessed,   there also isn't any consensus about what counts  as the bare market. Some believe that crypto is in   a bare market the moment that Bitcoin has dropped  by 20% because that's the definition of a bare   market in most other assets. The problem is that  it's normal for Bitcoin to drop 20% even during   bull markets, which would mean that Bitcoin  would be in a bare

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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