Coin Bureau: BTC will fall

Said on Jun 5, 2025, at 2:47 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“however   this leverage could be dynamite on the way down  as well and history suggests it's a question of   when not if that dynamite's fuse will be lit”
Watch at 2:47Bitcoin's BIGGEST Risks!! Watch If You Hold BTC!!
PredictionBTCwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$101,509

Jun 5, 2025

Price at close

$61,056

Jun 5, 2026

Return

−39.9%

S&P 500 +25.8%

BTC closed at $101,509 on Jun 5, 2025. On Jun 5, 2026 it closed at $61,056, a return of −39.9%. SPY returned +25.8% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Dec 2024Apr 2025Aug 2025Dec 2025Apr 2026Aug 2026Said on Jun 5, 2025
$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Dec 2024Jun 2025Jan 2026Aug 2026Said on Jun 5, 2025

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$101,509Jun 5, 2025$108,198Jul 5, 2025+6.6%S&P 500 +5.8%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$101,509Jun 5, 2025$111,706Sep 3, 2025+10.0%S&P 500 +8.9%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$101,509Jun 5, 2025$91,278Dec 2, 2025−10.1%S&P 500 +15.6%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$101,509Jun 5, 2025$61,056Jun 5, 2026−39.9%S&P 500 +25.8%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jun 4, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jun 4, 2030——
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $101,509 on Jun 5, 2025. On Jul 5, 2025 it closed at $108,198, a return of +6.6%. SPY returned +5.8% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $101,509 on Jun 5, 2025. On Sep 3, 2025 it closed at $111,706, a return of +10.0%. SPY returned +8.9% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $101,509 on Jun 5, 2025. On Dec 2, 2025 it closed at $91,278, a return of −10.1%. SPY returned +15.6% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $101,509 on Jun 5, 2025. On Jun 5, 2026 it closed at $61,056, a return of −39.9%. SPY returned +25.8% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 4, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 4, 2030.

What was said around it

recent launch of more accessible forms of   wrapped Bitcoin like Coinbase's CBTC and this  has resulted in an explosion in DeFi lending   using Bitcoin as collateral as we highlighted  in our video about wrapped Bitcoin earlier this   year this leverage is likely to be rocket fuel  for the crypto market on the way up including   for altcoins consider that a lot of these stable  coins being borrowed against Bitcoin in DeFi are   likely to flow into other cryptos on that altcoin  blockchain as we highlighted in that video however   this leverage could be dynamite on the way down  as well and history suggests it's a question of   when not if that dynamite's fuse will be lit  all it would take is some exogenous shock that   results in Bitcoin crashing around the margins  and liquidations will begin this time around   though the risk is more likely to be found among  retail borrowers than institutional borrowers for   example there could be many retail investors who  use their Bitcoin as collateral for loans thanks   to its accessibility uh something happens and  all that collateral gets sold pushing Bitcoin's   price down very quickly and this could trigger  liquidations among larger Bitcoin

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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