Why: 30 days
BTC closed at $37,008 on Feb 21, 2022. On Mar 23, 2022 it closed at $42,883, a return of +15.9%. SPY returned +3.6% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
Why: 90 days
BTC closed at $37,008 on Feb 21, 2022. On May 22, 2022 it closed at $30,294, a return of −18.1%. SPY returned −9.0% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
Why: 180 days
BTC closed at $37,008 on Feb 21, 2022. On Aug 20, 2022 it closed at $21,140, a return of −42.9%. SPY returned −1.0% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
Why: 1 year
BTC closed at $37,008 on Feb 21, 2022. On Feb 21, 2023 it closed at $24,452, a return of −33.9%. SPY returned −5.6% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
Why: 3 years
BTC closed at $37,008 on Feb 21, 2022. On Feb 20, 2025 it closed at $98,305, a return of +165.6%. SPY returned +48.5% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
Why: 5 years
Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 20, 2027.
Why: Stated deadline
BTC closed at $37,008 on Feb 21, 2022. On Mar 14, 2022 it closed at $39,671, a return of +7.2%. SPY returned −2.9% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.