Graham Stephan: BTC will fall

Said on May 19, 2021, at 10:56 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“from here on out though it's still unclear where it's heading and there's very much a chance it might continue dropping lower and testing the previous psychological barrier of $30,000 at which point we'll see where it stabilizes”
Watch at 10:56Bitcoin Fell Below $30,000
PredictionBTCwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$36,690

May 19, 2021

Price at close

$30,319

May 19, 2022

Return

−17.4%

S&P 500 −4.0%

BTC closed at $36,690 on May 19, 2021. On May 19, 2022 it closed at $30,319, a return of −17.4%. SPY returned −4.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000$70,000Nov 2020Mar 2021Jul 2021Nov 2021Mar 2022Jul 2022Said on May 19, 2021
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000Nov 2020Jun 2021Dec 2021Jul 2022Said on May 19, 2021

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$36,690May 19, 2021$35,820Jun 18, 2021−2.4%S&P 500 +1.3%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$36,690May 19, 2021$44,696Aug 17, 2021+21.8%S&P 500 +8.4%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$36,690May 19, 2021$63,607Nov 15, 2021+73.4%S&P 500 +14.5%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$36,690May 19, 2021$30,319May 19, 2022−17.4%S&P 500 −4.0%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$36,690May 19, 2021$66,915May 18, 2024+82.4%S&P 500 +34.7%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$36,690May 19, 2021$77,002May 18, 2026+109.9%S&P 500 +92.5%
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $36,690 on May 19, 2021. On Jun 18, 2021 it closed at $35,820, a return of −2.4%. SPY returned +1.3% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $36,690 on May 19, 2021. On Aug 17, 2021 it closed at $44,696, a return of +21.8%. SPY returned +8.4% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $36,690 on May 19, 2021. On Nov 15, 2021 it closed at $63,607, a return of +73.4%. SPY returned +14.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $36,690 on May 19, 2021. On May 19, 2022 it closed at $30,319, a return of −17.4%. SPY returned −4.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

BTC closed at $36,690 on May 19, 2021. On May 18, 2024 it closed at $66,915, a return of +82.4%. SPY returned +34.7% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

BTC closed at $36,690 on May 19, 2021. On May 18, 2026 it closed at $77,002, a return of +109.9%. SPY returned +92.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

now trying to dampen the party but I say this because I'm seeing 99.99% of these coins as nothing but a money grab that serve absolutely no purpose and that does a disservice to the authentic legitimate coins that just don't get the attention they deserve it's also a good idea not to trade based on the tweets of Elon Musk both positive or negative because even though he does influence the price those movements are only temporary and really any trading from that is just pure gambling from here on out though it's still unclear where it's heading and there's very much a chance it might continue dropping lower and testing the previous psychological barrier of $30,000 at which point we'll see where it stabilizes but like I said if this volatility worries you then I would take that as a sign that you should re-evaluate your position and realize that perhaps you have more money invested than you're comfortable with the problem with that is that when you get that sudden Panic you're more likely to trade emotionally and make quick decisions that you otherwise wouldn't have made it's a lot better to be able to trade with less so that you can think objectively realize that there are risk with investing

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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