Joseph Carlson: một nhận định không rõ hướng

Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Chỉ báo suy thoái theo mốc của NBER: Ngân hàng Dự trữ Liên bang St. Louis, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

Ngữ cảnh xung quanh

we'll tell everybody that mother nature and the business cycle has been repealed and that recessions don't exist but they always follow the pattern of what the fed's already been doing he is convinced that a recession is coming it is inevitable people wonder where the recession is until it finally hits now I'll admit that this interview is a little bit more spooky than most because he's very bearish and he has a lot of convincing arguments there seems to be more Merit to what he's saying and we know that part of what he's saying is true there is a probability in fact it may be a high probability that we enter into a recession over the next 12 months so what does that mean for us investors the way that I think about this is pretty simple I always assume that there's a decent probability that we could go into recession it's a normal course of the economic system it's happened over and over again all throughout our country's history all throughout the market recessions are normal they do happen from time to time trying to avoid them continually for decade after decade seems like it's nearly impossible so I can make the basic assumption that David Rosenberg may be correct maybe we will

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