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Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Chỉ báo suy thoái theo mốc của NBER: Ngân hàng Dự trữ Liên bang St. Louis, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

Ngữ cảnh xung quanh

for why we technically still haven't had a recession yet is this next part check this out lag effect the graph below shows the FED fund rate and the time is as measured in months from the last in a series of rate hikes preceding each recession since 1981 so meaning they're increasing the rates increasing increasing increasing increasing increasing boom they stopped raising how long did it take until recession hit if you look at these numbers you'll see a six of 15 months 8 months 17 months 10 months you know what that means so it means that on average it has taken us roughly 11 months after the FED stopped raising the federal fund rate to go into an official recession and according to the CME fed watch tool there's a 99.9% chance rates will stay the same so let me tie all of this together the last time the FED raised our rate was in July this year assuming that CME fed watch tool I just showed you is correct in predicting that they will not raise the rate on November 1st or ever again they'll probably keep it here indefinitely until they start to lower that means we have to start counting from July this year 11 months from July this year takes us to June 2024 now if that CME fed watch

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