Graham Stephan: một nhận định không rõ hướng

Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Chỉ báo suy thoái theo mốc của NBER: Ngân hàng Dự trữ Liên bang St. Louis, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

Ngữ cảnh xung quanh

according to the people who are spending like there's no tomorrow these are the reasons why first there's a good job market this means that the average American is more comfortable about being able to make maintain their income in the event of a downturn and the good news is that objectively the unemployment rate is now one of its lowest levels ever in history at 3.7% which is almost near the 5 decade low of 3.4% however the flip side to this is that so far throughout history unemployment has never been able to sustain below 4% without hitting a recession permanent job losses are rising with more and more people being forced to take on second jobs and the yield curve is so inverted that the probability of a downturn could be unavoidable but until then sure everything is fine the second reason is that Americans are playing with house money thanks to the pandemic it's reported that Americans collectively pocketed about 280 billion from tapping the equity in their homes and saved about 120 billion from ref financings allowing them to spend a lot more money than they would otherwise how well just consider that prior to 2020 the average mortgage interest rate was somewhere around 5% but

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