Graham Stephan: GME will fall

Said on Feb 8, 2021, at 11:51 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the price will eventually fall as so many people can only buy in at once.”
Watch at 11:51Suing Robinhood - The Aftermath
PredictionGMEwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$12.58

Feb 9, 2021

Price at close

$28.90

Feb 8, 2022

Total return, dividends included

+129.8%

S&P 500 +17.1%

GME closed at $12.58 on Feb 9, 2021. On Feb 8, 2022 it closed at $28.90, a total return of +129.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +17.1%. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

GMEWindow checked
$-20$0$20$40$60$80$100Aug 2020Dec 2020Apr 2021Aug 2021Dec 2021Apr 2022Said on Feb 8, 2021
$-50$0$50$100Aug 2020Mar 2021Sep 2021Apr 2022Said on Feb 8, 2021

GME closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$12.58Feb 9, 2021$66.25Mar 10, 2021+426.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −0.2%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$12.58Feb 9, 2021$40.28May 7, 2021+220.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +8.5%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$12.58Feb 9, 2021$37.94Aug 6, 2021+201.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +14.1%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$12.58Feb 9, 2021$28.90Feb 8, 2022+129.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +17.1%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$12.58Feb 9, 2021$14.35Feb 8, 2024+14.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +33.5%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$12.58Feb 9, 2021$24.98Feb 6, 2026+98.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +89.6%
Why: 30 days

GME closed at $12.58 on Feb 9, 2021. On Mar 10, 2021 it closed at $66.25, a total return of +426.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −0.2%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

GME closed at $12.58 on Feb 9, 2021. On May 7, 2021 it closed at $40.28, a total return of +220.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +8.5%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

GME closed at $12.58 on Feb 9, 2021. On Aug 6, 2021 it closed at $37.94, a total return of +201.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +14.1%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

GME closed at $12.58 on Feb 9, 2021. On Feb 8, 2022 it closed at $28.90, a total return of +129.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +17.1%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

GME closed at $12.58 on Feb 9, 2021. On Feb 8, 2024 it closed at $14.35, a total return of +14.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +33.5%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

GME closed at $12.58 on Feb 9, 2021. On Feb 6, 2026 it closed at $24.98, a total return of +98.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +89.6%. The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

you're willing to ride it to the ground, then so be it. But if this is money that's worth a lot to you, then it's worth it to be careful. There's no shame to taking profits and being a level-headed rounded investor. And lastly, we got to talk about media attention. Many people would argue that peak media attention also coincides with peak prices and to me, I think that's correct. The price of GameStop keeps going up as more people talk and cover it. But as soon as that attention goes away and moves on to something else as it will inevitably for everything, the price will eventually fall as so many people can only buy in at once. Now sure, WallStreetBets claims that media attention purposely diverted itself away over to silver or by saying that short-sellers had already covered and exited their positions to scare people into selling off. And yeah, that probably did have a detrimental effect. But attention was driving the price and the right time to sell in hindsight was at the point where attention began to wane and the sentiment began to dwindle. To me, the whole thing was cut short by the limit of how many stocks you could buy of GameStop from Robinhood and other brokerages. And really,

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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