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Joseph Carlson: JPM will fall

Said on Sep 20, 2021, at 7:12 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“i think it does have some downside pressure because it's ran up so much and it's a bank and anytime people become worried about anything with the economy banks seem to be the first thing to sell off”
Watch at 7:12The Evergrande Sell Off Has Started | Joseph Carlson Ep. 184
PredictionJPMwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$152.96

Sep 20, 2021

Price at close

$115.83

Sep 20, 2022

Total return, dividends included

−22.1%

S&P 500 −10.2%

JPM closed at $152.96 on Sep 20, 2021. On Sep 20, 2022 it closed at $115.83, a total return of −22.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −10.2%. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

JPMWindow checked
$80$100$120$140$160$180Mar 2021Jul 2021Nov 2021Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Said on Sep 20, 2021
$100$120$140$160$180Mar 2021Oct 2021Apr 2022Nov 2022Said on Sep 20, 2021

JPM closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$152.96Sep 20, 2021$170.84Oct 20, 2021+12.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +4.2%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$152.96Sep 20, 2021$156.76Dec 17, 2021+3.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +6.3%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$152.96Sep 20, 2021$140.10Mar 18, 2022−7.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.1%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$152.96Sep 20, 2021$115.83Sep 20, 2022−22.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −10.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$152.96Sep 20, 2021$210.48Sep 19, 2024+49.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +37.1%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$152.96Sep 20, 2021$349.67Sep 18, 2026+159.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +87.6%
Why: 30 days

JPM closed at $152.96 on Sep 20, 2021. On Oct 20, 2021 it closed at $170.84, a total return of +12.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +4.2%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

JPM closed at $152.96 on Sep 20, 2021. On Dec 17, 2021 it closed at $156.76, a total return of +3.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +6.3%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

JPM closed at $152.96 on Sep 20, 2021. On Mar 18, 2022 it closed at $140.10, a total return of −7.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.1%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

JPM closed at $152.96 on Sep 20, 2021. On Sep 20, 2022 it closed at $115.83, a total return of −22.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −10.2%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

JPM closed at $152.96 on Sep 20, 2021. On Sep 19, 2024 it closed at $210.48, a total return of +49.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +37.1%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

JPM closed at $152.96 on Sep 20, 2021. On Sep 18, 2026 it closed at $349.67, a total return of +159.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +87.6%. The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

and one thing that i said continually with jp morgan i've said in video after video recently that i don't consider jp morgan a buy i think it ran up so much and was at lofty valuations for the company it's trading higher than it's ever traded before when i bought jpmorgan i bought it down in this area in the 90s in the 100s and then i even bought a little bit more right here in like the 120s but i wasn't buying it up here and i continue to think that jp morgan isn't a special deal right now in fact i think it does have some downside pressure because it's ran up so much and it's a bank and anytime people become worried about anything with the economy banks seem to be the first thing to sell off so i haven't added to jpmorgan any time recently if i was to do anything right now between buy and sell i would be taking some gains with jp morgan and selling a little bit before buying it now moving on we can go to the health care category avi is down 0.56 percent and johnson johnson is completely flat today so it's really not moving a whole lot because of any of this news now the renewable and energy category is actually in the green dominion energy is up one point five eight percent and next

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonJPMwill rise to $150.00

“i'm going to continue to hold the stock throughout this recession i want to hold it until it recovers at least until the 150s”

Jul 15, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonJPMwill rise

“so my opinion this company's a buy now the number four dividend paying company that i'm buying currently is one that's just getting crushed in today's market and that's t rowe price”

Jun 17, 2022 · after 1 year

Correct+31.0%