Why: 30 days
BTC closed at $19,964 on Jul 11, 2022. On Aug 10, 2022 it closed at $23,954, a return of +20.0%. SPY returned +9.3% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.
Why: 90 days
BTC closed at $19,964 on Jul 11, 2022. On Oct 9, 2022 it closed at $19,439, a return of −2.6%. SPY returned −5.2% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.
Why: 180 days
BTC closed at $19,964 on Jul 11, 2022. On Jan 7, 2023 it closed at $16,944, a return of −15.1%. SPY returned +1.9% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.
Why: 1 year
BTC closed at $19,964 on Jul 11, 2022. On Jul 11, 2023 it closed at $30,622, a return of +53.4%. SPY returned +17.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.
Why: 3 years
BTC closed at $19,964 on Jul 11, 2022. On Jul 10, 2025 it closed at $116,010, a return of +481.1%. SPY returned +69.9% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.
Why: 5 years
Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 10, 2027.