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Joseph Carlson: V will fall

Said on Nov 18, 2021, at 8:44 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“i think the margins that they charge will eventually be lowered over time and if those margins are lowered in the future which i believe they will be i think investors will see this as a real threat to visa's monopoly and i could see a lot of selling in the future”
Watch at 8:44I Just Sold Two Stocks Completely
PredictionVwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$200.86

Nov 19, 2021

Price at close

$210.80

Nov 18, 2022

Total return, dividends included

+5.7%

S&P 500 −14.3%

V closed at $200.86 on Nov 19, 2021. On Nov 18, 2022 it closed at $210.80, a total return of +5.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −14.3%. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

VWindow checked
$160$180$200$220$240$260May 2021Sep 2021Jan 2022May 2022Sep 2022Jan 2023Said on Nov 18, 2021
$160$180$200$220$240$260May 2021Dec 2021Jun 2022Jan 2023Said on Nov 18, 2021

V closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$200.86Nov 19, 2021$211.88Dec 17, 2021+5.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −1.6%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$200.86Nov 19, 2021$228.82Feb 16, 2022+14.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −4.4%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$200.86Nov 19, 2021$204.00May 17, 2022+1.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −12.3%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$200.86Nov 19, 2021$210.80Nov 18, 2022+5.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −14.3%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$200.86Nov 19, 2021$309.64Nov 15, 2024+57.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +30.6%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 17, 2026——
Why: 30 days

V closed at $200.86 on Nov 19, 2021. On Dec 17, 2021 it closed at $211.88, a total return of +5.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −1.6%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

V closed at $200.86 on Nov 19, 2021. On Feb 16, 2022 it closed at $228.82, a total return of +14.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −4.4%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

V closed at $200.86 on Nov 19, 2021. On May 17, 2022 it closed at $204.00, a total return of +1.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −12.3%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

V closed at $200.86 on Nov 19, 2021. On Nov 18, 2022 it closed at $210.80, a total return of +5.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −14.3%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

V closed at $200.86 on Nov 19, 2021. On Nov 15, 2024 it closed at $309.64, a total return of +57.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +30.6%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 17, 2026.

What was said around it

mastercard so do i think visa is instantly gonna go downhill from here and the company's over not at all i'm not extremely bearish on the company but every company that i look at i want to assess the value proposition to the customer and if they're creating increasingly good value for the customer i don't see that with visa mastercard and i also don't see them as the strong network effect monopolies that they used to be they have many competitors encroaching on them i think the margins that they charge will eventually be lowered over time and if those margins are lowered in the future which i believe they will be i think investors will see this as a real threat to visa's monopoly and i could see a lot of selling in the future so with the company trading on a 28 multiple as well as only having a 0.6 dividend yield i just think there's better places to put my money now in terms of what i'm buying with this cash i've not decided yet i'm going to be reviewing different companies i'll be looking at different options and i'll let you know as soon as i decide where this money's going now moving on we have to discuss this news with apple and i know joseph you talk about apple so much i get it

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph Carlsona call under review

“that combination should sustain Visa's growth for at least the next 20 years”

Oct 17, 2024

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonVwill rise

“if I had a guess right now my assumption on the future returns investors will receive if they buy Visa today I believe it would be somewhere in the range of around 15 percent annualized”

Jul 26, 2023 · after 1 year

Not verifiable