Andrei Jikh: BTC will fall

Said on Nov 5, 2021, at 11:50 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“we're a cyclical asset it will drop substantially one of these days or one of these years”
Watch at 11:50Sharing All My Investments
PredictionBTCwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as crypto, a word for a group: this call is judged on BTC, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$60,937

Nov 5, 2021

Price at close

$21,299

Nov 5, 2022

Return

−65.0%

S&P 500 −18.5%

BTC closed at $60,937 on Nov 5, 2021. On Nov 5, 2022 it closed at $21,299, a return of −65.0%. SPY returned −18.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000$70,000May 2021Sep 2021Jan 2022May 2022Sep 2022Jan 2023Said on Nov 5, 2021
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000May 2021Nov 2021Jun 2022Jan 2023Said on Nov 5, 2021

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$60,937Nov 5, 2021$49,396Dec 5, 2021−18.9%S&P 500 −3.2%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$60,937Nov 5, 2021$37,312Feb 3, 2022−38.8%S&P 500 −4.3%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$60,937Nov 5, 2021$39,690May 4, 2022−34.9%S&P 500 −7.8%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$60,937Nov 5, 2021$21,299Nov 5, 2022−65.0%S&P 500 −18.5%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$60,937Nov 5, 2021$67,850Nov 4, 2024+11.3%S&P 500 +27.1%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 4, 2026——
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $60,937 on Nov 5, 2021. On Dec 5, 2021 it closed at $49,396, a return of −18.9%. SPY returned −3.2% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $60,937 on Nov 5, 2021. On Feb 3, 2022 it closed at $37,312, a return of −38.8%. SPY returned −4.3% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $60,937 on Nov 5, 2021. On May 4, 2022 it closed at $39,690, a return of −34.9%. SPY returned −7.8% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $60,937 on Nov 5, 2021. On Nov 5, 2022 it closed at $21,299, a return of −65.0%. SPY returned −18.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

BTC closed at $60,937 on Nov 5, 2021. On Nov 4, 2024 it closed at $67,850, a return of +11.3%. SPY returned +27.1% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 4, 2026.

What was said around it

a thousand dollars but in opportunity money it actually cost me around 400 000 in hindsight which is not as bad as the two pizzas for 10 000 bitcoins but it's still pretty bad and that's how i learned my three biggest lessons in all of finance that i'll probably ever learn number one make sure that whatever you put your money into is something that you understand if you understand it you'll do really well and if you don't and if you only buy because someone that you look up to bought then when that price drops and in crypto that happens all the time we're a cyclical asset it will drop substantially one of these days or one of these years and the reason people sell is because they bought without understanding what it is they're buying that is one of the most important lessons that you'll ever learn the second lesson that i've learned yeah definitely don't do that the second lesson that i've learned is to never sell always continue to accumulate assets and savings and instead borrow against your assets at interest rates lower than the interest rates that your assets will generate i made an entire video about this about how to invest like the one percent it's really in depth and it's really

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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