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Graham Stephan: Bubble burst — not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

Said on Apr 11, 2018, at 13:41 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I don't see a smoking gun that we can point at and be like you know what this is 100% a bubble this is going to crash because frankly I don't see it”
Watch at 13:41Are we in a REAL ESTATE BUBBLE?!
PredictionBubble burst— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

What was said around it

limited supply so for the way I see it I don't see any indication that real estate is a bubble or that real estate is gonna come crashing down anytime soon now while I believe there are some things that maybe could be done a little bit better I do believe that always anytime in history there are things that could be done a little bit differently and there's never gonna be a point in time where things are 100% perfect they're always gonna be some concerns for some issues that could be rising up but again for the way I see it I don't see a smoking gun that we can point at and be like you know what this is 100% a bubble this is going to crash because frankly I don't see it so as always you guys thank you so much for watching I seriously seriously appreciate it now really quick a video like this does take hours for me to put together and a lot of research is done on my own to make sure I don't sound like an idiot when I make a video like this talking about real estate and I can't cite direct numbers or sources so if you guys enjoyed this I put a lot of time into this one just make sure to hit the like button it really does make a huge difference also if you're watching this and you're not subscribed

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

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Andrei JikhBubble burst— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“And higher yields are the one thing that could pop everything we've talked about, like all the paper profits and the circular spending and the $150 billion in corporate bonds that all these companies issued to fund their AI spending, right?”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

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Coin Bureaua call under review

“When 1/3 of the world's traded helium supply vanishes from the market, the speculative technology bubble faces a mathematical reality check that no amount of venture capital can solve.”

Apr 12, 2026

Not scored

Andrei Jikha call under review

“So eventually everything corrects just like it did in the dotcom bubble when the internet was going to be the future. And what happened back then? It all crashed. The bubble popped.”

Nov 11, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauBubble burst— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“And that, ladies and gentlemen, is exactly how a blowoff top in crypto will occur. Make no mistake, nobody knows for sure when it will happen. and there's absolutely no guarantee that it will, but historical cycles suggest it may.”

Mar 27, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Bubble burst will happen

“the super bubble pop will drop the market by an insane amount”

Sep 2, 2022

Relayed