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Joseph Carlson: HD will rise

Said on Mar 30, 2023, at 15:33 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think that investors that are buying when sentiments low on the company are probably going to do pretty well over the next five years”
Watch at 15:33Michael Burry Just Gave Up - Why I'm Still Buying
PredictionHDwill riseby Mar 28, 2028
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$295.12

Mar 31, 2023

Price at close

$383.60

Mar 28, 2024

Total return, dividends included

+33.4%

S&P 500 +29.6%

HD closed at $295.12 on Mar 31, 2023. On Mar 28, 2024 it closed at $383.60, a total return of +33.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +29.6%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

HDWindow checked
$250$300$350$400$450Oct 2022Jan 2023May 2023Sep 2023Jan 2024May 2024Said on Mar 30, 2023
$250$300$350$400Oct 2022Apr 2023Nov 2023May 2024Said on Mar 30, 2023

HD closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$295.12Mar 31, 2023$300.54Apr 28, 2023+1.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +1.6%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$295.12Mar 31, 2023$306.51Jun 28, 2023+4.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +7.0%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$295.12Mar 31, 2023$302.54Sep 26, 2023+3.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +4.8%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$295.12Mar 31, 2023$383.60Mar 28, 2024+33.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +29.6%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$295.12Mar 31, 2023$321.65Mar 27, 2026+17.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +61.0%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Mar 28, 2028——
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Pending——Mar 28, 2028——
Why: 30 days

HD closed at $295.12 on Mar 31, 2023. On Apr 28, 2023 it closed at $300.54, a total return of +1.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +1.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

HD closed at $295.12 on Mar 31, 2023. On Jun 28, 2023 it closed at $306.51, a total return of +4.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +7.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

HD closed at $295.12 on Mar 31, 2023. On Sep 26, 2023 it closed at $302.54, a total return of +3.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +4.8%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

HD closed at $295.12 on Mar 31, 2023. On Mar 28, 2024 it closed at $383.60, a total return of +33.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +29.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

HD closed at $295.12 on Mar 31, 2023. On Mar 27, 2026 it closed at $321.65, a total return of +17.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +61.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 28, 2028.

Why: Stated deadline

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 28, 2028.

What was said around it

history of growing the dividend the only time that it was really flat was again during the Great Recession outside of that they're very committed to returning Capital through dividend Distribution on top of paying dividends they have a share count that's continually declining this is what we want to see over time this means the company's doing BuyBacks increasing our equity in the company so overall I Like Home Depot I like where it's priced right now I like the fact that it's trading down while the rest of the Market's going up I think that investors that are buying when sentiments low on the company are probably going to do pretty well over the next five years the territory rad really like to buy this company where I'd really be looking at it is when it gets down to the lower 1615 Ford p e ratio right now it's at a 20. that's again mid-range but I'd like to buy the company where it's in its historical lower bound Range 14 to 15 Ford p e ratio that would really spark my interest I think the future expected return would be higher so as of right now I'll keep Home Depot on the watch list now moving on from Home Depot we have dividend pair number two which is msci this is a company that

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“i think both of them are going through a lot of troubles they're both stacking on debt walmart had a hugely negative free cash flow quarter home depot stacked on three billion dollars of debt in the quarter they're both guiding for four or five percent earnings growth over the next year and their valuations are still on the high end for retailers”

May 17, 2022

Not scored