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Graham Stephan: Bubble burst — not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

Said on Nov 2, 2017, at 9:14 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I don't see any reason that real estate is overvalued and I don't see any reason that there's gonna be a bubble or a crash coming in the near future”
Watch at 9:14To everyone wondering “When the Real Estate market will crash??” - my prediction
PredictionBubble burst— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

What was said around it

payments who are making a lot of money who afford these houses who are buying this is hardly a bubble and this is very sustainable long-term because none of these people are ever gonna let their homes go into foreclosure because they have so much equity tied up in their house plus all the people that were previously underwater on their mortgage in like 2010 11 12 are no longer underwater chances are if they've just held and done nothing chances are they've ended up making a pretty decent amount of money and long story short I don't see any reason that real estate is overvalued and I don't see any reason that there's gonna be a bubble or a crash coming in the near future now realistically this is what I think is going to happen and what I think is actually happening what I've noticed so far is that there is a huge construction boom there is a ton of inventory coming in the market at least in the west side of Los Angeles you drive down any block and you see at least one home under construction and one home being flipped now the problem isn't so much all these people flipping and developing homes and selling them because they're still selling and there are so people with a ton of money buying

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhBubble burst— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“And higher yields are the one thing that could pop everything we've talked about, like all the paper profits and the circular spending and the $150 billion in corporate bonds that all these companies issued to fund their AI spending, right?”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin Bureaua call under review

“When 1/3 of the world's traded helium supply vanishes from the market, the speculative technology bubble faces a mathematical reality check that no amount of venture capital can solve.”

Apr 12, 2026

Not scored

Andrei Jikha call under review

“So eventually everything corrects just like it did in the dotcom bubble when the internet was going to be the future. And what happened back then? It all crashed. The bubble popped.”

Nov 11, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauBubble burst— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“And that, ladies and gentlemen, is exactly how a blowoff top in crypto will occur. Make no mistake, nobody knows for sure when it will happen. and there's absolutely no guarantee that it will, but historical cycles suggest it may.”

Mar 27, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Bubble burst will happen

“the super bubble pop will drop the market by an insane amount”

Sep 2, 2022

Relayed