Coin Bureau: GLD will rise

Said on May 15, 2025, at 9:33 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“china's central  bank is going to provide a continuous if not price   inelastic source of buying pressure as it slowly  rebalances away from its dollar heavy balance   sheet”
Watch at 9:33Central Banks Know Something You Don’t—Buy Gold NOW?
PredictionGLDwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$297.84

May 15, 2025

Price at close

$417.29

May 15, 2026

Total return, dividends included

+40.1%

S&P 500 +26.6%

GLD closed at $297.84 on May 15, 2025. On May 15, 2026 it closed at $417.29, a total return of +40.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +26.6%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

GLDWindow checked
$200$250$300$350$400$450$500$550Nov 2024Mar 2025Jul 2025Nov 2025Mar 2026Jul 2026Said on May 15, 2025
$200$300$400$500$600Nov 2024Jun 2025Dec 2025Jul 2026Said on May 15, 2025

GLD closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$297.84May 15, 2025$316.29Jun 13, 2025+6.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +1.1%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$297.84May 15, 2025$309.21Aug 13, 2025+3.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +9.5%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$297.84May 15, 2025$379.87Nov 11, 2025+27.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +16.3%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$297.84May 15, 2025$417.29May 15, 2026+40.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +26.6%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——May 12, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——May 14, 2030——
Why: 30 days

GLD closed at $297.84 on May 15, 2025. On Jun 13, 2025 it closed at $316.29, a total return of +6.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +1.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

GLD closed at $297.84 on May 15, 2025. On Aug 13, 2025 it closed at $309.21, a total return of +3.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +9.5%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

GLD closed at $297.84 on May 15, 2025. On Nov 11, 2025 it closed at $379.87, a total return of +27.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +16.3%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

GLD closed at $297.84 on May 15, 2025. On May 15, 2026 it closed at $417.29, a total return of +40.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +26.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 12, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 14, 2030.

What was said around it

and maintained an average pace of 40  tons per month in line with recent patterns we   estimate it would take approximately 3 years to  reach a 20% gold share i'm not sure what recent   patterns Goldman Sachs is talking about here  because China bought 44 tons of gold last year   and 30 tons in the last 6 months with a slowing  rate of purchases as the price runs deeper into   the mid $3,000 range as far as we can tell China  has never habitually bought 40 tons of gold per   month but we'll take their point china's central  bank is going to provide a continuous if not price   inelastic source of buying pressure as it slowly  rebalances away from its dollar heavy balance   sheet and approaches a gold allocation closer to  that of the Atlanticist countries the good news   for gold bulls is that China is not the only  country that is underweight gold and trying to   do something about it a data from the World Gold  Council shows that as of Q2 2024 the average gold   allocation of central banks in developed markets  was about 28% whereas it was just 13% in emerging   markets and this provides useful context for  understanding the ddollarization trend it's not   so much about shedding the

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