Coin Bureau: ETH will fall

Said on Jul 20, 2022, at 18:02 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“there may be a short-term retracement though as people sell the news on the event”
Watch at 18:02Ethereum Merge Closer Than EVER!! What It Means For ETH!
PredictionETHwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$1,522

Jul 20, 2022

Price at close

$1,892

Jul 20, 2023

Return

+24.3%

S&P 500 +16.4%

ETH closed at $1,522 on Jul 20, 2022. On Jul 20, 2023 it closed at $1,892, a return of +24.3%. SPY returned +16.4% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

ETHWindow checked
$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000Jan 2022May 2022Sep 2022Jan 2023May 2023Sep 2023Said on Jul 20, 2022
$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000Jan 2022Aug 2022Feb 2023Sep 2023Said on Jul 20, 2022

ETH closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$1,522Jul 20, 2022$1,609Aug 19, 2022+5.7%S&P 500 +6.9%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$1,522Jul 20, 2022$1,311Oct 18, 2022−13.9%S&P 500 −5.6%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$1,522Jul 20, 2022$1,577Jan 16, 2023+3.6%S&P 500 +1.8%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$1,522Jul 20, 2022$1,892Jul 20, 2023+24.3%S&P 500 +16.4%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$1,522Jul 20, 2022$3,592Jul 19, 2025+136.1%S&P 500 +65.9%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jul 19, 2027——
Why: 30 days

ETH closed at $1,522 on Jul 20, 2022. On Aug 19, 2022 it closed at $1,609, a return of +5.7%. SPY returned +6.9% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

ETH closed at $1,522 on Jul 20, 2022. On Oct 18, 2022 it closed at $1,311, a return of −13.9%. SPY returned −5.6% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

ETH closed at $1,522 on Jul 20, 2022. On Jan 16, 2023 it closed at $1,577, a return of +3.6%. SPY returned +1.8% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

ETH closed at $1,522 on Jul 20, 2022. On Jul 20, 2023 it closed at $1,892, a return of +24.3%. SPY returned +16.4% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

ETH closed at $1,522 on Jul 20, 2022. On Jul 19, 2025 it closed at $3,592, a return of +136.1%. SPY returned +65.9% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 19, 2027.

What was said around it

fact that the devs are comfortable enough to put it in the diary for september even assuming there were one or two bugs and it was pushed back again there are still three months as a buffer for the remainder of the year when the merge does finally occur we're likely to see a rally in the price of eth we can also see st eth approach parity with eth as investors arbitrage the difference when the unlocked staked eth could be sold at a profit as eath supply starts to decrease and holding demand equal the natural supply demand dynamics could be price accretive there may be a short-term retracement though as people sell the news on the event they'll be focusing their attention on the next upgrade which will allow the staked eth to be withdrawn and the upgrade after that which will bring sharding to the network of course this really depends on what happens in the macro environment over the next few months that is still gloomy and there are other risks that lie beneath the surface see my video on chinese bank runs for example but these are not ethereum specific and i am holding eth for the long term i'm bullish on the technology and the transformative power of d5 the recent collapse of all those

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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