Graham Stephan: DOGE will fall

Said on Apr 16, 2021, at 12:50 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“i honestly think this will continue to get more and more mainstream attention but in the bigger picture i wouldn't be surprised if we see some rather large price drops along the way”
Watch at 12:50Dogecoin Is Out Of Control
PredictionDOGEwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$0.365443

Apr 16, 2021

Price at close

$0.1435

Apr 16, 2022

Return

−60.7%

Bitcoin −34.2%

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Apr 16, 2022 it closed at $0.1435, a return of −60.7%. BTC returned −34.2% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

DOGEWindow checked
$-0.2$0$0.2$0.4$0.6$0.8Oct 2020Feb 2021Jun 2021Oct 2021Feb 2022Jun 2022Said on Apr 16, 2021
$-0.2$0$0.2$0.4$0.6$0.8Oct 2020May 2021Nov 2021Jun 2022Said on Apr 16, 2021

DOGE closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.5137May 16, 2021+40.6%Bitcoin −24.3%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.18534Jul 15, 2021−49.3%Bitcoin −48.0%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.2326Oct 13, 2021−36.4%Bitcoin −6.5%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.1435Apr 16, 2022−60.7%Bitcoin −34.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.16123Apr 15, 2024−55.9%Bitcoin +3.4%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.09488Apr 15, 2026−74.0%Bitcoin +22.0%
Why: 30 days

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On May 16, 2021 it closed at $0.5137, a return of +40.6%. BTC returned −24.3% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Jul 15, 2021 it closed at $0.18534, a return of −49.3%. BTC returned −48.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Oct 13, 2021 it closed at $0.2326, a return of −36.4%. BTC returned −6.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Apr 16, 2022 it closed at $0.1435, a return of −60.7%. BTC returned −34.2% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Apr 15, 2024 it closed at $0.16123, a return of −55.9%. BTC returned +3.4% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Apr 15, 2026 it closed at $0.09488, a return of −74.0%. BTC returned +22.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

seriously if people have a genuine interest in it and today that's certainly the case i made the argument a few months ago that if mass adoption begins to take place because of its popularity then absolutely it'll continue going up in price and so far to my amazement that's actually been the case but it's still uncertain just how many companies are actually going to adopt it and give it functionality it's still a gamble and if you're looking to invest only invest an amount that you're comfortable with losing i honestly think this will continue to get more and more mainstream attention but in the bigger picture i wouldn't be surprised if we see some rather large price drops along the way so if you're buying in that is what you're signing up for investments like this are entirely dependent around detention and on the internet attention changes day by day so even though it's doing really well right now when all the eyes are on dogecoin the real question becomes what happens when people move on and pay attention to something else instead i'm certainly excited to see how this plays out but just remember be careful play it safe and there's no shame in taking out some profits if you're up a lot

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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