Coin Bureau: a call under review

Said on Jul 5, 2022, at 14:08 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“okay so there seems to be a reasonable likelihood that we could have a second negative quarter of gdp growth thereby implying a technical recession”
Watch at 14:08Is This The RECESSION?! Here's The FACTS You Need To Know!!
Predictiona call under review
What happened
Not scored

How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.

The window it was checked over

Technical recessionWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−40%−20%0%20%40%60%201920202021202220222023Said on Jul 5, 2022
−50%0%50%100%2019202120222023Said on Jul 5, 2022

Real GDP: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.

What was said around it

impact that the rising mortgage payments could have on disposable income after paying bills there's less money to spend on other goods and services this could become particularly acute for those people who took out adjustable rate mortgages anytime over the past five years interest rates are already the highest they've been for years and when these adjustable rate mortgages start to adjust up they're going to seriously increase mortgage servicing costs for said borrowers yet again this implies less income after paying bills okay so there seems to be a reasonable likelihood that we could have a second negative quarter of gdp growth thereby implying a technical recession but even if the business cycle wonks decide not to label it a recession or even if we are able to eke out minuscule growth of some kind dark economic clouds are gathering on the horizon this is because of one thing only and that's fed policy it seems as if the goal of achieving a soft landing will be as elusive as a bitcoin etf and the fed has decided that trying to strike a balance between growth and lower inflation is going to be too tough to pull off after reaching the highest cpi inflation since 1981 the fed has decided

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