Joseph Carlson, dẫn lời nguồn khác: Lãi suất sẽ tăng

Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Cận trên của biên độ lãi suất mục tiêu quỹ liên bang (Fed funds): Hội đồng Thống đốc Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

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many investors like Jeremy seagull who's also an economist were confused by the Market's reaction because as he points out most people that he knows were expecting this it was something that they expect ing drum pal to do yeah I I agree with you and it was exactly as I expect I actually think it's a a healthy development you know back in September when they lowered 50 basis points I I said two things I said first of all the the neutral rate is much higher than what the FED has indicated I think it's between three and a half and 4% uh I also said long-term rates were going up I've said that on your program several times and I I think they're going to go up more and that's not necessarily an unhealthy development uh do you know that for the first time in almost three years the 10year is above the FED funds rate um and that's a normal situation I mean we brought the FED funds rate I mean p brought it down uh yesterday 4.33% and as you know we're 4 and a half% now on the 10e it's normal for long-term interest rates to be above short-term interest range we were three years in an inverted term structure that's not an healthy situation so we are actually normalizing the interest rate structure

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