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Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

GDP thực: Cục Phân tích Kinh tế Mỹ (BEA), qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

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currently there are some estimates that the u.s has seen further negative growth for example last week the federal reserve bank of atlanta released what it terms the gdp now forecasts according to the latest estimates of the model it has q2 gdp falling by 2.1 so put that in your pipe and smoke it now perhaps what's even more interesting here is the evolution of these forecasts over the past three months they've gone from an estimate of over two percent back in may all the way down to an estimate of minus two point one percent on the first of july what that shows is that based on statistical models we could indeed be heading for a technical recession but let's put the statistical models aside for a moment we can try and come to a rough idea of how gdp numbers could look based on other economic factors that impact on it perhaps one of the most important factors in the calculation of gdp has to be consumer spending and in the us consumer spending is one of the biggest drivers of the economy it makes up a full 70 of all u.s economic output crazy i know anywho if there are any signs that consumer spending is starting to turn then this could be the clearest sign yet that the gdp numbers could

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