Andrei Jikh: một nhận định không rõ hướng

Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Cận trên của biên độ lãi suất mục tiêu quỹ liên bang (Fed funds): Hội đồng Thống đốc Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

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of money in just 3 days. US stocks sold off. Bitcoin went down and JP Morgan was warning that the unwind had only just started. People are like this carry trade which seemed like the easy trade is no longer. So you start exiting fast and it starts to be self-fulfilling. Unwinds and unwinds and unwinds. Now in 2025, the Bank of Japan is still tightening. Japanese bond yields are going up and the yen is starting to get stronger, which means trillions of dollars in global leverage are again at risk of unraveling one margin call at a time. And now for the first time in decades, Japan may not just stop buying US treasuries, they might start selling them. And that brings me to what's happening in Japan's bond market right now, which is not good. In May 2025, the yields or interest rates on their 30-year government bonds hit over 3%. The 40-year bonds are at 3.6%, an all-time high. And that might not sound like a lot if you're used to US interest rates, but for Japan, this is historic. These are supposed to be the safest, most stable bonds in the country. And now investors want a huge premium just to hold them. In other words, they want more interest. Why? Because their trust is fading. Japan's

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